ShopperTrak Advises Retailers: Slumping 2007 Foot Traffic Could Indicate Downturn in Retail Sales
Historical Data Shows Retail Traffic is Strong Indicator of Future Sales Performance
CHICAGO - September 12, 2007 - Following an eight-month trend of slumping total U.S. retail foot traffic so far in 2007, ShopperTrak RCT, provider of the National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) and ShopperTrak Retail Traffic Index (SRTI), is advising retailers that this trend could indicate that an industry-wide drop in sales will follow in the near future.
While retail sales have remained positive, posting a year-over-year increase in 33 out of a possible 36 weeks in 2007, total U.S. foot traffic has slumped seven of eight months so far throughout the year (January -4.0; February -5.0; March +2.9; April -13.0; May -3.9; June -3.7; July -6.2; August -1.7) with March's Easter holiday performance the only exception. This downward traffic trend represents the lengthiest ShopperTrak has seen since the company began collecting traffic data nearly ten years ago.
"Historically, our data suggests that declining traffic can often be masked by flat to increasing sales performance, as sales associates are investing more time on fewer shoppers, temporarily increasing each sale," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak. "Unfortunately, after a sustained period of time, retail sales ultimately can begin to reflect the traffic decline like the one we've been monitoring throughout 2007, which suggests retailers could experience an industry-wide dip in sales in the coming months."
Martin continued: "If this slowing traffic trend does not reverse, we could see retail sales declining as early as the first quarter of 2008, which would be a significant negative event for the industry. Because of this, it is now more critical than ever that retailers have the tools in place to analyze traffic performance, allowing them to avoid potential sales drops by aggressively building traffic."
Martin clarified that this trend does not indicate gloom and doom for upcoming holiday shopping season.
"We anticipate that purpose shopping will remain reasonably strong during the holidays, just as it has during the recent back-to-school and Easter shopping seasons," he said.
Developed by ShopperTrak, the NRSE provides a nationwide benchmark of retail sales. It is derived from the U.S. Commerce Department's GAFO (general
merchandise, apparel, furniture, sporting goods, electronics, hobby, books and other related store sales) statistic, as well as ShopperTrak's proprietary industry intelligence on shopper traffic and sales statistics. This gives retailers, investors and policy makers the most accurate and timely information on consumer trends available today.
The ShopperTrak Retail Traffic Index™ measures traffic across six separate retail segments including total U.S. retailing. Available as a database or in newsletter format, SRTI reports national and regional traffic trends in a rolling 16 month trend line.
A privately held entity, ShopperTrak leverages 20 years of retail expertise to be the industry's authority for information and analysis of shopper traffic in retail environments. ShopperTrak's cutting-edge shopper tracking products and indices offer retail intelligence solutions that enable companies to better understand retail trends and the impact of store and staff performance on company revenues. With more than 45,000 units installed in the world's best known retail outlets and malls, the company's solutions also provide a proven means for retailers to gauge labor efficiencies, advertising and marketing efforts, store design and remodeling programs, merchandise changes, associate training programs, and other budget-intensive strategic initiatives. For more information visit http://www.shoppertrak.com.
EDITOR'S NOTE: ShopperTrak will release its annual list of the anticipated top 10 shopping days for the 2007 holiday season on September 18, with a full preview of the critical shopping period to follow on November 14.
The data contained within this news release is the property of ShopperTrak RCT Corporation and may be reprinted, published or broadcast, provided proper credit is given to the National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) and ShopperTrak RCT Corporation as the supplier of the information. Please contact Aaron Martin at 312-943-9100 if you have any questions concerning the use of this data.


