ShopperTrak Predicts 4.2 Percent Retail Traffic Decrease for 2009 Holiday Season

1.6 Percent Sales Increase Expected During Same Period

CHICAGO - October 20, 2009 - ShopperTrak today announced good news and bad news for the retail industry. The good news – consumer confidence is slowly rising heading into the crucial holiday shopping season. The bad news – the company predicts this increased confidence most likely won’t be enough to make the season merry and bright. According to the company’s Retail Traffic Index (SRTI), total U.S. foot traffic during the 2009 holiday season is expected to decline 4.2 percent as compared to last year, while the company’s National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) is forecasting a 1.6 percent retail sales increase.

"In 2008 retailers truly experienced a perfect storm just prior to the holidays as gasoline prices remained high, the financial markets collapsed and the presidential election distracted consumers and slowed shopping – equaling the worst year-over-year losses in holiday retail sales in over 40 years,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak. “While retailers still haven’t recovered from this blow, energy prices have retreated, foreclosures have been stabilized, unemployment is rising at a slower rate, and our data shows retail traffic has been slowly increasing which indicates consumer sentiment could be rising heading into the season."

During the 2008 holiday shopping season, retail sales posted a 5.9 percent decline, while total U.S. foot traffic fell a staggering 15.4 percent as compared to 2007. In 2007, sales and foot traffic increased 2.5 and 0.3 percent respectively compared to 2006. This year, ShopperTrak’s NRSE and SRTI indices are forecasting a 4.5 percent total U.S. foot traffic decline and a 0.1 percent retail sales decrease in November. In December, the company anticipates a slightly better 3.8 percent total U.S. foot traffic decline and a 3.3 percent retail sales increase.

“While our data suggests consumer confidence is minimally rising, economic conditions will continue to force shoppers to be very value driven during the 2009 holiday shopping season,” said Mr. Martin. “Throughout the year, the American consumer has been forced to economize trips to the mall, visiting fewer stores during each trip that offer the most value, and we don’t see this trend changing during the 2009 holiday spending period.”

In analyzing the top performing traffic and sales days of the 2009 holiday season, ShopperTrak predicts Black Friday (Nov. 27), Super Saturday (Dec. 19) and the day after Christmas (Dec. 26) will be the strongest days. Historically, listed below are the top three traffic and sales days since 2005:

The SRTI is generated from a carefully drawn sample of more than 50,000 retail and enclosed mall locations throughout the United States. The product is a set of six calculated indices for select segments of the retail industry that compare current week mall or store traffic to a baseline traffic figure from a fixed week on the NRF calendar. The SRTI is priced by individual segment.

Developed by ShopperTrak, the NRSE provides a nationwide benchmark of retail sales. It is derived from the U.S. Commerce Department's GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, sporting goods, electronics, hobby, books and other related store sales) statistic, as well as ShopperTrak's proprietary industry intelligence on shopper movement and sales statistics. This gives retailers, investors and policy makers the most accurate and timely information on consumer trends available today.

A privately held entity, ShopperTrak leverages 20 years of retail expertise to be the industry's authority for information and analysis of the movement of shoppers in retail environments. ShopperTrak's cutting-edge shopper tracking products and indices offer retail intelligence solutions that enable companies to better understand retail trends and the impact of store and staff performance on company revenues. With more than 50,000 units installed in the world's best known retail outlets and malls, the company's solutions also provide a proven means for retailers to gauge labor efficiencies, advertising and marketing efforts, store design and remodeling programs, merchandise changes, associate training programs, and other budget-intensive strategic initiatives. For more information visit http://www.shoppertrak.com.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The data contained within this news release is the property of ShopperTrak RCT Corporation and may be reprinted, published or broadcast, provided proper credit is given to the National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE), Retail Traffic Index (SRTI) and ShopperTrak RCT Corporation as the supplier of the information. Please contact Aaron Martin at 312-943-9100 if you have any questions concerning the use of this data.