Strong Shopper Numbers Kick Off Holiday 2017: Black Friday Weekend Shopper Visit Data Backs up 2016 Improvement of YOY Trends
With Black Friday behind us and December, retail’s busiest month, just around the corner, the time has come to take a deeper look at shopper behavior during Black Friday Weekend 2017, the period spanning Thanksgiving Day (11/23/17) through Sunday (11/26/17). For this analysis, we leverage a sample of same-store traffic data from 2011 – 2017, in order to remove any noise and ensure strong data correlations over time.
The Big Picture: YOY Trends
In last year’s Black Friday Weekend report, ShopperTrak analysts noted that our 2016 data could signal the start of shopper visit improvement, after a multi-year downward trend. Bill McCarthy, General Manager of the Americas for ShopperTrak, wrote: “2016 shopper visit data signals that the era of steep YOY declines in shopper visits around [Black] Friday may be coming to an end. This does not mean that shopper visits levels will cease to decrease YOY. Rather, that traffic levels may begin to fluctuate less wildly.”
In a nutshell, all signs in ShopperTrak’s 2017 Black Friday Weekend data indicate that Bill’s 2016 prediction was correct. Traffic levels for the holiday week, as a whole (Sunday, 11/19 – Sunday 11/26), indicate that the rate of shopper visit decline is the same this year as it was in 2016: -2%. This minor YOY decline represents a meaningful improvement from 2015, when traffic was down -4.7%. Similarly, 2017 Black Friday traffic is down less than 1% YOY –for more detail on how ShopperTrak arrived this figure, check out this post.
Overall, this strong shopper visit performance indicates that Black Friday remains a highly relevant day for shoppers and retailers, alike. In fact, Black Friday is the busiest in-store shopping day of the year! Ultimately, Black Friday bucked year-to-date trends, which indicates that shoppers are ready and willing to hit the stores this holiday season.
Extended Black Friday
When looking at the combined period of Thanksgiving night and Black Friday — which ShopperTrak dubs “extended Black Friday,” 2017 shopper visits are down by only -1.6% YOY, a slight decrease from 2016’s -1.0%. Much like the minimal YOY decreases we saw this year on Black Friday, itself (12 AM – 11:59 PM), this minor decline during the extended period has proven to be far less substantial in 2016 and 2017, when compared to earlier years.
Another interesting trend in extended Black Friday data is that while most retailers saw minimal change in YOY traffic levels for the full period, retailers in outlet malls fared differently. Traffic for non-outlet retailers that remained open on Thanksgiving night was flat YOY. Yet, stores in outlet malls experienced a +4.7% bump in traffic YOY on Thanksgiving night, which is a greater improvement than the +2% increase they saw on Black Friday. With this, it may be fair to assert that while some shoppers are still willing to go out on Thanksgiving night, general interest is waning. Outlets seem to be shoppers’ preferred destination on Thanksgiving night, while the majority of consumers choose to remain with family on the holiday.
Saturday and Sunday
What a difference two years can make: combined Black Friday Weekend (i.e., Saturday and Sunday) traffic, during the past two years, has decreased -2.5 – 3.5% YOY. This range represents a substantial turnaround from the prior three years, during which shopper visit decreases ranged from -4.5% – 6% YOY. This reinforces the notion that traffic trends are stabilizing, and that significant dips in shopper visits may become a thing of the past.
As we wrap up our review of Black Friday 2017, it’s important to highlight the fact that many retailers have reported exceptional online sales figures this year. Specifically, Adobe reported that $5.03 billion was spent on Black Friday — not to mention, Cyber Monday is officially the largest sales day in history, with retailers earning $6.59 billion in online sales. Also worth noting is that Cyber Monday is clearly perceived by shoppers as an online holiday. The day’s digital nature has little impact on in-store traffic, as brick- and-mortar retailers saw only a -2.3% decrease in foot traffic yesterday, Cyber Monday 2017. This news, combined with current stable in-store traffic trends, means that savvy omnichannel retailers are on track to combat the ‘death of retail’ narrative.